Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Marriage calculations

Today we are launching a fascinating marriage calculator. Based on the work of a Wharton professor using US Census data,it allows users to see the current (and historical) divorce rates for people that statistically "look like them." In addition, it estimates the divorce rate for your peer group over the next 5 years.

I am fascinated by demographics. Play around with the calculator a bit and you will see big swings in the results based on age and education.

My own numbers are as follows: My peer group has a 22% divorce rate and I have a 5% chance of divorcing in the next 5 years.

My wife's numbers are 17% with a 5% chance of divorcing. Five percent is about average in terms of our chances over the next 5 years. Hey, we are average!!!

You can also go back in time - for example, I have a friend who married very young. If I calculate his "score" five years into his marriage, at that time he had an 18% chance of getting divorced in the next 5 years and about 10% of people like him had already divorced. Tough odds. Unfortunately, my friend divorced in his fifth year of marriage as well.

1 comment:

Mark Firehammer said...

Interesting stuff Cotter. Learning and gaining advantages from data is very smart. Thanks