Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Marriage calculations

Today we are launching a fascinating marriage calculator. Based on the work of a Wharton professor using US Census data,it allows users to see the current (and historical) divorce rates for people that statistically "look like them." In addition, it estimates the divorce rate for your peer group over the next 5 years.

I am fascinated by demographics. Play around with the calculator a bit and you will see big swings in the results based on age and education.

My own numbers are as follows: My peer group has a 22% divorce rate and I have a 5% chance of divorcing in the next 5 years.

My wife's numbers are 17% with a 5% chance of divorcing. Five percent is about average in terms of our chances over the next 5 years. Hey, we are average!!!

You can also go back in time - for example, I have a friend who married very young. If I calculate his "score" five years into his marriage, at that time he had an 18% chance of getting divorced in the next 5 years and about 10% of people like him had already divorced. Tough odds. Unfortunately, my friend divorced in his fifth year of marriage as well.

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Is it time to move all-in to CDs?


If you believe it is "always darkest just before the dawn," then the stock market is clearly close to a sunrise. It has been a brutal few months,with many mutual funds down 30$ to 45% for the year!!! To lose almost one-half of your value in a short period of time sounds brutal - and it has been for me anyway.

I know that rationally, I shouldn't even look at my 401(k), as I am years from retirement, but I can't help myself, It is depressing!

After years at Bankrate, I know a bit about CDs - perhaps I should just dump my savings into them! 4.5% sounds terrible,until you compare it to -40%!!!

This blog on CDs and investing had a depressing poll - Where is the economy going in 2010? I gotta be honest,I selected "I believe unemployment will increase, the stock market will fall further and we will approach a depression."


Usually, when things lookthe bleakest, that is the time to buy. When is that? Now,or a year from now?